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How to Read a Card · The Stat Lab

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How to Read a Card

Every player a bookmaker has put a disposal line on this round gets one card. It answers one question — how often has he got there before — and shows the games behind the answer. Here it is, block by block.

Example Player

Example Club v Other Club

Example Oval

LINE

24.5

cleared it 6 of 9 · 1 set aside

THE RECORD

LAST 5

26.8 avg

26R16 OTH
34R17 @OTH
21R18 OTH
28R19 @OTH
25R20 OTH

LAST 10 RANGE: 6–34last 25
THIS SEASON: 24.818 games

V OTHER CLUB

26.2 avg · last 5 of 9

24@'24 R7
29'25 R2
22@'25 R18
30'26 R4
26@'26 R13

@ = away · shaded = cleared 24.5

1 game in the strip sits outside his own range and is set aside from the count — cause unknown, we no longer receive time-on-ground.

THE MARKET

24.5over 1.91 · under 1.9150.0% implied

Opened at 25.5 and shortened to 24.5 across two moves.

2 books · quoting 24.5 to 25.5 · captured Fri 21 Aug, 8:00 am

OUR NUMBER

for comparison

23.8from 18 games

His recent games, weighted to the latest. Not a tip — the gap to the line is not an edge.

How we get this

A recency-weighted average of his own 18 games this season — a game six matches back counts half as much as his last one. It uses no market data, no team news and no opponent information.

Runs about 0.7 low on lined players, so 0.7 is added back. The raw number was 23.1.

MORE DETAIL▾

DAYS SINCE LAST GAME: 62026-08-15
TREND IN LAST 10: 23.4 → 26.8+3.4
LINE VS HIS LAST 20: 44th8 of 18 at or under

HOME / AWAY · 2026 ONLY

25.6 at home (9) · 24 away (9)

WHERE BOOKS HAVE HAD HIM

25.5R18
25.5R19
24.5R20

FULL LAST 10

22OTH
27

Example only — invented numbers, no real player, club or bookmaker

Line
The number, and his last ten against it
The bookmaker's line sits at the top, because it is the thing you are actually deciding about. Under it, his last ten games as bars — filled if he cleared the line, hollow if he didn't.
The caption counts them: cleared it 6 of 9. Games far outside his own range are drawn but set aside from the count and said so — a 6-disposal game is almost always an injury or a late withdrawal, and letting it drag the count down would describe a player who doesn't exist. Hiding it would be worse.
The record
The games behind the count
A ratio on its own is evidence dressed as an answer — six near-misses and six blowouts give you the same 6 of 9 and are not the same player. So the count is a caption and the games are the block.
His last five with the actual numbers, his range over the window, his season average, and — only when there are at least three meetings — what he has done against this opponent.
The market
The prices, and whether they've moved
The line, the price either side, and the no-vig probability those prices imply. Disposals is the only market in this data quoted both ways, so it is the only one where that number means anything.
Then how the line has moved since we first caught it, drawn as a step, with how many bookmakers are quoting and when we last looked. If one book is quoting, the card says so rather than calling it a consensus.
Our number
Last on the card, and for comparison only
A recency-weighted average of his own past games. It is deliberately the last block and it is labelled for comparison, because it is the least reliable number on the card — see “What this isn't” below.
It runs low on lined players, so a correction is added and the card shows the raw number, the correction, and where it came from under “How we get this”. Applied openly or not at all.
More detail
The drawer, when you want it
Home and away splits, whether he is trending up or down across the season, where this line sits against his own distribution, and how the line has moved round to round. It ends with what we don't have, by name — that list is on every card.
Warnings
When a card can't be trusted

The detail

Everything Else, When You Want It

Three questions people ask. Open the ones you care about.

Where Our Number Comes FromA recency-weighted average of his own games — nothing cleverer.

Every game he has played counts, but recent ones count for more — a game about six matches back carries half the weight of his most recent one. That is the whole method. It uses no market data, no team news, no injury or role information.

Because the method is fixed, it can be tested honestly: each projection is built only from games played before it, then graded against what the player actually did. What that grading shows is at the bottom of this page and on the track record page — including the rounds we had to throw out.

What This Isn'tNo tips, and no claim to a better number than the bookmaker's.

What This Isn't

Not tips. No over/under calls, no confidence scores, no recommended bets anywhere on the site.
Not a better number than the bookmaker's. Ours is a recency-weighted average of that player's own past games and nothing else — no market data, no team news, no injury or role information. The bookmaker's line has all of that, and measured against what players actually did, the line is the more accurate number more often than ours is. When the two disagree, the likeliest explanation is that we're wrong. That gap isn't an edge and nothing here presents it as one.
Not a match model. No winners, margins or scores.
Not every player. Only those a bookmaker has lined this round — roughly a third of the field. The board says how many games have no lines rather than quietly showing fewer.

Where It's WeakestThin history, returning players, and the things the data can't see.

A player with fewer than about eight games of history gets a thinner read, and the card says so rather than pretending. Returning players and role changes are where our number is slowest — a recency-weighted average takes a few games to notice a midfielder has moved forward.

The receipts

And Here's How Often We're Wrong

Our number is the least reliable thing on the card, so we grade it in public. Only the rounds we can prove were fixed before the first bounce are counted — the rest are named and excluded, with timestamps.

3.49average miss, disposals

54%within 3 disposals

491cards, of 1145 graded

The full record, round by round →

Ready to Look at a Real One?

This Round's Board →

The number, and his last ten against it

The games behind the count

The prices, and whether they've moved

Last on the card, and for comparison only

The drawer, when you want it

When a card can't be trusted

Everything Else, When You Want It

What This Isn't

And Here's How Often We're Wrong

Ready to Look at a Real One?