AFL disposals · research
What He's Actually Done
Against the Number on Offer
A bookmaker says a player will get 24.5 disposals. The first question worth asking is how often he's cleared it before, and in what games. Stat Lab shows you — one card per player, for every player with a line this round.
Want the receipts first? See what we can prove we got right — free, misses included.
One card, per player
What a Card Answers
Plainly
What This Is Not
No tips, no picks, no best bets — nothing here tells you what to back. And we don't claim our number beats the bookmaker's: where the two disagree, the bookmaker is usually right, and the gap between them isn't an edge.
The Longer VersionFour things we're careful not to claim, spelled out.
No picks, no leans, no best bets, no confidence stars. Nothing here tells you what to back. If you want a number to follow, this is the wrong product.
Our projection comes last on every card, labelled the least reliable thing on it. Where our number and the bookmaker's disagree, the bookmaker is usually right. The gap between them isn't an edge, and we never present it as one.
Only players a bookmaker has put a disposal line on this round — roughly a third of the field. The board says how many games have no lines at all rather than quietly showing fewer.
Ours came down in August 2026 when we found the measurement was wrong. The track record page now shows only the rounds we can prove were graded honestly, and names the ones it excluded.