What We Can Prove

A projection is only evidence if it was fixed before the game. This page grades the ones we can show were, and names the ones we can't — with the timestamps, so you can check rather than trust.

Disposals · provably forward-graded

3.49average miss, disposals

54%within 3 disposals

491cards, of 1145 graded

491 cards over 2 rounds is a start, not a track record. Too few games to tell a good model from a lucky one. It grows by a round a week from here.

Round by Round

A round with no provable games reports no number at all, rather than one computed on the games we excluded.

RoundGames gradedCardsAvg missWithin 3

R18 20262 of 9 · 7 excluded82 of 3344.0345.1%

R19 20260 of 9 · 9 excluded0 of 402not graded—

R20 20269 of 94093.3955.7%

What We Excluded, and Why

For 16 games our projections were frozen to file after the game had already started. The file is generated automatically and there's no sign anyone saw a result — but we can't prove it, so these 654 cards count nowhere on this page.

All 16 Excluded Games, With Timestamps

GameRoundCardsFirst bounceWritten

Geelong v St KildaR19452026-07-16 09:302026-07-19 10:41 · 73.2h late

Sydney v AdelaideR19462026-07-17 09:402026-07-19 10:41 · 49h late

St Kilda v Port AdelaideR18382026-07-11 03:152026-07-12 14:33 · 35.3h late

Greater Western Sydney v GeelongR18402026-07-11 06:152026-07-12 14:33 · 32.3h late

Port Adelaide v FremantleR19452026-07-18 03:152026-07-19 10:41 · 31.4h late

Carlton v HawthornR18352026-07-11 09:352026-07-12 14:33 · 29h late

Adelaide v Gold CoastR18312026-07-11 10:102026-07-12 14:33 · 28.4h late

North Melbourne v MelbourneR19462026-07-18 06:152026-07-19 10:41 · 28.4h late

Collingwood v CarltonR19452026-07-18 09:352026-07-19 10:41 · 25.1h late

West Coast v Brisbane LionsR19442026-07-18 10:102026-07-19 10:41 · 24.5h late

Western Bulldogs v West CoastR18352026-07-12 03:102026-07-12 14:33 · 11.4h late

Melbourne v RichmondR18332026-07-12 05:152026-07-12 14:33 · 9.3h late

Brisbane Lions v EssendonR18402026-07-12 06:402026-07-12 14:33 · 7.9h late

Richmond v HawthornR19442026-07-19 03:102026-07-19 10:41 · 7.5h late

Gold Coast v Western BulldogsR19442026-07-19 05:152026-07-19 10:41 · 5.4h late

Essendon v Greater Western SydneyR19432026-07-19 06:402026-07-19 10:41 · 4h late

There Is No Long-Run Figure Here

This page used to carry a six-season record built from 51,990 projections. It came down in August 2026 because the program that produced it was measuring the wrong thing, and it hasn't been put back at a corrected value. It goes back up when it's right, with the date it was measured, and not before.

What Was Wrong With ItA parsing defect that threw away 96% of the data, and a check that caught it and was ignored.

The replay read round labels in one format while our database stores them in another, so it silently discarded every home-and-away game and ran on finals alone — 2,066 games out of 56,308. Its own check for exactly this printed an error value, and the program carried on.

A corrected figure needs the rebuilt program and a corrected archival process behind it — the same archival timing that forces the exclusions above.

See What This Round's Cards Look Like →